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3.1Economic Collapse and Unfolding of an Unprecedented Humanitarian Catastrophe
The figures and statements dealt here are incomplete economic as there has not been a comprehensive survey and data collection based on real basic production and productive forces such industrial and agricultural outputs, labour and productivity, import-export and terms and balance of trade, fiscal and monetary elements such revenue and budget, banking and insurance systems, etc. but on some UN empirical reports about the manifestations of market prices, inflation, and humanitarian and poverty statistics which are as a result inadequate and cannot portray the real economic situation or poverty levels prevailing in the country due to the insecurity and lack of access to all regions to find out all that necessary information.
Consequently, within four months of the Ethiopian occupation’s devastating actions, the UN top Humanitarian Affairs declared ‘In terms of numbers and access to them Somalia is a worse displacement crisis than Darfur or Chad or anywhere else this year’(2) in reference to the massive displaced people and the rest of the dispossessed population trapped in the city. This humanitarian disaster unprecedented in the history of Somalia has split over to other regions which were negatively impacted by this rapacious and destructive occupation or received and hosted tens of thousands of IDPs from Mogadishu.
Thereafter, the humanitarian situation started to constantly and rapidly deteriorate. On 23rd July 2008 the UN OCHA issued warning report that in Somalia the humanitarian situation ‘was fasting deteriorating’ and ‘in January (2008) the target (needy) population was 1.5 million’ and again on 8 August 2008 the UN estimated ‘that 2.6 million people in Somalia need aid, a 40 percent increase in the number of vulnerable people since January. Some 3.5 million Somalis or half the total population could require assistance by the end of the year - an increase of 900,000 people in one month.’(3) Later after four months the above figure of 3.5 million was rectified as ‘3.2 million people in Somalia – 43 per cent of the population – are in need of humanitarian assistance as a result of the combined effects of conflict and drought’ (4) without any explanation. Did the 300,000 people left out died or become well-off? Or was the previous number was inflated? The report added that ‘Despite the challenging security circumstances in Somalia, WFP has managed to provide food aid to more than 1.5 million needy people in the country each month. WFP shipped some 260,000 metric tons of food to Somalia in 2008, almost four times what it provided in 2007 ’ which means the UN and other humanitarian agencies were unable to provide food aid to 1.7 million people who were either in ‘Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) and Humanitarian Emergency (HE) according to the UN itself. Out of the above figure of 3.2 million, ‘1.2 million are rural people in crisis’ and 2 million people, are urban poor and internally displaced population -IDPs.’ (5)
Since then the humanitarian crisis has been deteriorating from one unprecedented level to another. Prof. Abdi Ismail Samatar accused the Bush US Administration for the destruction of Somalia by stating ‘The Ethiopian invasion, which was sanctioned by the U.S. government, has destroyed virtually all the life-sustaining economic systems which the population has built for the last fifteen years.’(6) The UN too in directly acknowledged that the occupation forces created this humanitarian catastrophe by declaring ‘the worst humanitarian situations in the last 17 years’ (7) which means that the situation has so dramatically deteriorated during the last two years that Somalia was under Ethiopian occupation. On 7 October 2008, 52 international and national NGOs dealing with Somalia in a press release drew the attention of the international actors to their failure in addressing the runaway inflation and sky-high prices and dismal humanitarian situation prevailing and directed this blame
A New York Times correspondent journalist reported a famine prevailing in the central regions where ‘many Somalis are trying to stave off starvation with a thin gruel made from mashed thorn-tree branches called jerrin’(8) in Galgadud and Galmudug. The Resident and Coordinator of Humanitarian Affairs for Somalia warned ‘Somalia is really at a stage where the situation is getting increasingly acute and a cause for major concern.’(9). and UNICEF warned that ‘It is our view that 2009 will break or make of security-wise and humanitarian-wise for the Somali people.’ (10)
There is growing urban Poverty. According to the UN there are 705,000 urban poor people (22% of urban population) living in the main cities like Afgoi, Mogadishu, Dusa Mareb, Las Anood, Bossaso, Erigavo, and Burao and rural settlements of whom 556,000 are in Acute food and Livelihood crisis (AFLC) 140,000 are in Humanitarian Emergency (HE). Additionally, there are an ‘estimated 1 million new IDPs from the increased conflict over the last two years, plus 275,000 protracted IDPs, who are equally affected by the food price crisis.’ And ‘The rural crisis is more severe in that more than half or 680,000 people are in Humanitarian Emergency (HE), requiring emergency livelihood and life-saving’ in April 2008 and ‘the largest concentrations of rural populations in crisis are in the south (66%) and central regions (29%). Increased civil insecurity is leading to distressed population movement both internally and cross-border. Since July ’08, it is estimated that the number of IDPs has increased from 870,000 to 1,020,000 (UNHCR, January 9, ’08), and there are more than 275,000 protracted IDPs.’(11) while keeping in mind that there are multitude of poor and destitute people not reached out and reported by the UN and other humanitarian agencies because of inaccessibility due to insecurity as UN itself conceded ‘At present, south-central Somalia is almost entirely off limits to the international staff of aid agencies.’(12) For example, ‘Twenty four (24 ) aid workers, of whom 20 were Somalis and four (4) foreigners, have been intentionally killed and were missing in Somalia especially in Mogadishu and adjacent regions in 2008’(13) and there were country-wide 153 security incidents on in January 2009 (same report).which came down to 75 incidents in February 2009 – a 51% reduction.’’(14)
In this connection, sparing direct blame from the Ethiopian occupation forces’ devastation and policy of ‘kill by bullet and starvation’, a US academic and Somali analyst succinctly described the aid obstruction by the Ethiopian troops and then TFG leaders in this way ‘The humanitarian nightmare in Somalia is the result of a lethal cocktail of factors. The large-scale displacement caused by the fighting in Mogadishu is the most important driver. The displaced have fled mainly into the interior of the country, where they lack access to food, clean water, basic health care, livelihoods, and support networks. . . . IDPs, are among the most vulnerable populations in any humanitarian emergency. He adds ‘Humanitarian agencies in Somalia are facing daunting obstacles to delivery of food aid. There is now virtually no “humanitarian space” in which aid can safely be delivered. Until recently, the TFG and its uncontrolled security forces were mainly responsible for most obstacles to delivery of food aid. TFG hardliners view the provision of assistance to IDPs as support to an enemy population—terrorists and terrorist sympathizers in their view—and have sought to impede the flow of aid convoys through a combination of bureaucratic and security impediments. Uncontrolled and predatory TFG security forces, along with opportunistic criminal gangs, have erected over 400 militia roadblocks (each of which demands as much as $500 per truck to pass) and have kidnapped local aid workers for ransom.’ (15)
On 2/10/2008 the British Magazine The Economist acknowledged that during the two years period of the Ethiopian occupation period Somalia has been ruined by these words ‘Over the past 18 months, Somalia has descended into a terrible levels of displacement and humanitarian need, armed conflict and assassinations, political meltdown, radicalization and virulent anti-Americanism.’ And on 12/11/2008 Reuters joined the few Western media agencies which acknowledged the disaster in the making in Somalia by writing ‘Somalis are suffering dreadfully as violence compounds the misery caused by drought and soaring food prices in a country that was already one of the world’s poorest. About one million Somalis are international refugees. Aid workers, hampered by attacks on them, say it is one of the world’s worst crisis’ while on 5/12/2008 fifty two (52) NGOs dealing with Somalia declared ‘The international community has completely failed Somali civilians. The average Somali has seen price increases for food ad water of up to 1,000 per cent plunging many into worsening poverty’ –said the 52 NGOs. ‘At present, south-central Somalia is almost entirely off limits to the international staff of aid agencies.’(16)’ while ‘70% of the population lacks reliable access to safe water.’ (17).
The severe drought effects in the country especially the pastoral hinterlands during the last couple of years have not yet been fully assessed because of inaccessibility due to insecurity. Even so, the UN could sum up the situation as ‘A severe water shortage and deepening drought in many parts of Somalia is exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the country. Field reports confirm livestock are dying in huge numbers and remaining water sources cannot meet both humans and livestock needs. Humanitarian agencies are trucking water in the most critical areas but activities are far from meeting the enormous needs. . . The deepening drought in Somalia provides a continuing basis for concern as it is accompanied by high rates of malnutrition and the long term loss of assets and livelihoods’ (18) but complete numbers of livestock lost and people perished were not given.
For the period of Diraac 2008-2009 (Jiilaal) the UN and other sources have collected the following anecdotic and inadequate figures and statements at the beginning of the drought season. In Galgadud region due to drought and recent fighting there is serious humanitarian crisis apart from the 130,000 IDPs from Mogadishu complicated by deteriorating security. (19); in Galmudug besides the already known 40 -50,000 IDPS from Mogadishu, the UN reported 38,000 nomads in Galmudug needed immediate assistance. (20), in El Dheer district of Middle Shabelle ’30% of goats and sheep and 40% of cattle’ are said to have died. (21) And in Puntland some 400 nomadic families [2,400 people]. Pastoralists who lost they their livestock flock to cities where (22) that various relief agencies distributed food 220,000 drought victims in the following regions: 36,019 households in Gedo region, 60,000 and 10,000 households in Galgadud and southern Mudug (Galmudug) regions respectively and 20,000 beneficiaries (3,250 households) in Bay, Bakool and Hiran; and additional 48,000 people in Bakool region and 54,000 people in Gedo and Bay regions. (23)
On top of that, concerned of the disastrous humanitarian situation in Somalia in general and the current Gu’ (spring) rain shortfall much below its normal level which ensues the severe droughts of the last four years that decimated most of the pastoralists’ livestock in particular, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, Mark Bowden, a in letter (24/4//2009) addressed to the Somali people asking them to work together in this difficulty time and making assurances that the UN will do more to save lives and alleviate the hardships of the Somali needy millions as much as they can, he laments that the humanitarian agencies cannot have access to and unable to reach out many populations in needy due to insecurity especially parts in the south/central regions and Mogadishu where there are killings and abductions of aid workers of whom 18 are currently under captivity of their abductors. Mr. Bowden appreciates the social and economic developmental contributions played by the Somali Diaspora in Somalia in the past years which he says have recently shrunken owing to the effects of the Global Recession where the Somalia Diaspora communities live and that the UN plans to help encourage such contribution and efforts of he Diaspora. Finally, he appeals to the Somali ‘community leaders, elders ad the people to help ensure the security and safety of humanitarian staff’.
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